O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar os resultados de uma pesquisa eleitoral realizada nos Campi da USP-Capital pelo Centro de Estudos das Negociações Internacionais (CAENI) e pelo Instituto Júnior de Pesquisas Sociais (IJPS) durante o período de campanha do segundo turno da eleição presidencial de 2010. Discutimos o processo de amostragem e a implicação de pesquisar sobre um universo de pessoas mais escolarizadas e jovens do que a população total. Mostraremos que é mais fácil isolar um comportamento prospectivo nessas condições do que em uma amostra onde o universo é a população de eleitores inteira do país.

The aim of this paper is to present the results of an electoral research conducted in the University of São Paulo by the Center of Studies in International Negotiation (CAENI) and the Junior Institute of Social Research (IJPS) during the 2010 Brazilian presidential elections runoff. In this work we discuss the sampling process and its implications on a universe of higher scholarization. We show that the prospective behavior is easier to isolate in situations like these, in comparison with classical surveys over the total Brazilian population.

What does it take to make a coalition successful? Bigger coalitions are more likely to be successful because the GATT/WTO is a consensus-based institution and countries are informally penalized if they isolate themselves. Through a Bayesian statistical analysis, the article corroborates the above hypothesis. To further investigate the research question, qualitative case studies of the G-10 in the Uruguay Round and the Public Health Coalition in the Doha Round are conducted. These cases show that the more convincing the framing of a position, the better are the chances of coalitions keeping a large number of followers and supporters, thereby affecting their odds of success. By building a unique database and applying a new research design to the topic, the study rigorously tests theories about coalitions that had previously only been proposed but not empirically analyzed.

The influence of political parties on decisions made by members of Congress is a hotly debated issue in political science. In foreign policy, which is usually considered nonpartisan, the matter is even more inconclusive. The current study analyzes all the roll-call votes taken on foreign policy issues in the 2002-2006 legislature of the Chilean Chamber of Deputies. After tracing a spatial map of foreign policy preferences among Chilean Deputies using the Nominate statistical package, we concluded that the ideology of the legislator's political party is a predictive factor for his or her foreign policy behavior. Our findings indicate that the way Chilean legislators structure their preferences on foreign policy issues does not differ significantly from the way they shape their domestic policy preferences.

L'influence des partis politiques dans les décisions des parlementaires est un thème très discuté dans les sciences politiques. Quant à la politique extérieure, couramment considérée comme étant au-dessus des partis, la question reste plus ouverte. Dans cette recherche, on examine toutes les séances de votes nominaux sur des sujets de politique extérieure de la Législature 2002-2006 de la Chambre des Députés chiliens. Après avoir établi une carte des préférences des députés chiliens en matière de politique extérieure et à l'aide du programme statistique Nominate, on conclut que l'idéologie du parti politique du législateur est un facteur prédictif de la conduite du législateur en politique extérieure. Nos résultats montrent que la façon dont les législateurs chiliens établissent leurs préférences dans les thèmes de politique extérieure ne diffère pas significativement de la façon dont ils forment leurs préférences dans la politique interne.